Samsung cuts NAND flash memory production
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Samsung cuts NAND flash memory production

　　According to semiconductor industry insiders, Samsung Electronics has stepped up NAND flash production cuts and has reduced NAND flash memory production by about 40%. It is expected that the production reduction will reach 50% by the end of 2023.　　According to sources, Samsung has cut NAND flash production by 20% in the first half of 2023. The 50% reduction is expected to last at least one quarter before the end of the year.　　Sources also said that the purpose of Samsung's production reduction is to accelerate the transformation of its process technology to improve its product structure.　　The price of NAND flash memory has risen as Samsung and other manufacturers have drastically cut production or reduced investment. According to the supply chain, Samsung’s 512Gb NAND flash wafer price rose to $1.60 from the previous $1.40. It is expected that the unit price of 512Gb wafers will reach $2 by the end of this year.　　Sources pointed out that as wafer costs increase, the price of flash memory devices such as consumer SSDs and enterprise solutions is rising and is expected to continue to rise before the end of the year.
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Release time：2023-09-14 14:51 reading：3565 Continue reading>>
<span style='color:red'>NAND Flash</span> Manufacturers to Cut Capex by 2% YoY in 2019 Due to Worsening Oversupply
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NAND Flash Manufacturers to Cut Capex by 2% YoY in 2019 Due to Worsening Oversupply

Experiencing an oversupply over the entire year of 2018, the global NAND Flash market continues to face excess capacity this year as the demand outlook for notebooks, smartphones, servers and other end products remains weak, reports DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce. NAND Flash manufacturers have slowed down the capacity expansion by cutting capex in 2019, aiming to moderate the oversupply by limiting the bit output growth.South Korean manufacturers have taken initiatives to cut their NAND Flash capex due to the worsening oversupply in 2018, says DRAMeXchange. Even though the total capex in the whole NAND Flash industry has been cut by nearly 10%, the oversupply has continued. Looking ahead to 2019, U.S.-based manufacturers would also lower their semiconductor capex, and the total capex in the global NAND Flash industry is expected to be $22 billion, about 2% YoY lower than in 2018.Influenced by the adjustments in capacity expansion, 92/96-layer 3D NAND products would only account for about 32% of the industry’s total output by the end of 2019, while the portion of 64/72-layer products remains over 50%, although the major manufacturers have entered the mass production of 92/96-layer 3D NAND since the fourth quarter of 2018. As the manufacturers slow down capacity expansion and migration to advanced process, the bit output growth of NAND Flash is expected to be around 38% in 2019, significantly lower than over 45% in 2018.As for the capacity adjustments of manufacturers, DRAMeXchange notes that Samsung’s NAND Flash bit output growth is expected to be around 35%, considering the following two factors. First, Samsung would continue to reduce its production capacity for 2D NAND. Second, the operating capacity would also decrease compared with the end of 2018, since the 92-layer process requires more space in the fab. The slowdown in bit output growth would have great impacts on the global NAND Flash production, because Samsung's share in the NAND Flash market is about 30%.SK Hynix and Toshiba/Western Digital also have a chance to see smaller bit output growth. The two companies have respectively new M15 fab and Fab 6, but would also be affected by the production reduction plan or capacity transfer to previous-generation process. Therefore, DRAMeXchange has revised the forecast of their annual bit output growth to less than 50% and 35%, down from previous forecast of 50% and 40%, considering the weak demand outlook.Micron's new fab in Singapore will not officially enter mass production until 2020, so the company’s wafer capacity per month in 2019 will remain flat when compared to 4Q18. Intel plans to reach a full load capacity in its Dalian fab, but does not have other capacity expansion plan. The joint bit output of Micron and Intel would grow by nearly 40% in 2019, noticeably lower than 45% in 2018.In terms of the NAND Flash price trends for 2019, the quotes for various product lines would witness apparently steeper drop than DRAMeXchange’s previous forecasts, indicating the excess inventories faced by manufacturers. DRAMeXchange expects a quarterly decline of 20% in 1Q19, higher than previous forecast of 10%, and a further decline of nearly 15% QoQ in 2Q19. For 2H19, the price decline may be slightly moderated considering the coming of peak season, but prices would continue to fall by around 10% each quarter. It remains to be seen whether manufacturers are able to further limit their bit output growth. In sum, the average NAND Flash price would decrease by nearly a half in 2019, according to the calculation of DRAMeXchange.
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Release time：2019-01-11 00:00 reading：1179 Continue reading>>
Contract Prices of <span style='color:red'>NAND Flash</span> Products to Drop Further in 1H19; Price Decline Would Reach 10% in 1Q19
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Contract Prices of NAND Flash Products to Drop Further in 1H19; Price Decline Would Reach 10% in 1Q19

DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports that the bit output from the NAND Flash industry in 2018 turned out to be higher than expected, as suppliers had steady yields of their 64-layer 3D NAND production. NAND Flash demand, however, has remained sluggish due to the looming trade war between China and the U.S., the shortage of Intel CPUs, and the lower-than-expected sales of new iPhone devices, despite the year-end busy season.Looking ahead to the first half of 2019, NAND Flash manufacturers have tried to slow down their production capacity expansion, but the seasonal headwinds and high inventory levels would only intensify oversupply concerns in the market. Contract prices of NAND Flash products in 1Q19 are expected to drop further by around 10%.DRAMeXchange points out that the eMMC/UFS sector has seen a steeper price decline in 4Q18, since Chinese smartphone manufacturers attempt to consume inventories and adjust production plans by the end of the year. The inventory consumptions are expected to continue in 1Q19, so the contract prices of eMMC/UFS products would witness further fall of nearly 10%.As for the trend in the SSD market, DRAMeXchange expects Client SSD contract prices to fall by nearly 10% in 1Q19. The global notebook shipments for 1Q19 are estimated to decrease slightly by over 15% QoQ, the bit demand for SSD will grow more sluggish and prices will grow weaker, despite the increasing SSD adoption rate in the PC market and the memory content upgrades.Enterprise SSD market has become a battleground for all manufacturers as the demand for servers keeps growing, which will make the price competition more intense in 2019. For the first quarter of next year, the Enterprise SSD contract prices would also fall by more than 10% considering the seasonal headwinds.With regard to the demand in channel market, module makers have abundant supply this year, but as the NAND Flash prices continue to fall, module makers need to clear their inventories at the end of each month to cut loss. They even have to sell defective products to keep profitability, which is rather disruptive in the market. While major NAND Flash suppliers make a good profit this year, module makers are struggling with the worsening profitability. Looking ahead, the market situation is highly likely to remain tough for module makers in 1H19.
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Release time：2018-12-18 00:00 reading：1209 Continue reading>>
Total <span style='color:red'>NAND Flash</span> Revenue Rose by Just 4.4% QoQ in 3Q18
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Total NAND Flash Revenue Rose by Just 4.4% QoQ in 3Q18

DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports that the bit output from the NAND Flash industry increased steadily in 3Q18, as suppliers raised the yields of their 64/72-layer 3D NAND production. NAND Flash demand, however, had yet to catch up with supply despite the year-end busy season. The shortage of Intel CPUs and the lower-than-expected sales of new iPhone devices have respectively stifled the demand growths related to notebook PCs and smartphones. Also, the US-China trade dispute has been a negative influence on the whole market. Because the NAND Flash market had been in oversupply since the start of 2018, contract prices of NAND Flash products in 3Q18 registered significant declines from the previous quarter, and the average price drop was 10-15%.“The market for NAND Flash is expected to remain in oversupply during 4Q18, with steeper price decline for various NAND Flash products,” says DRAMeXchange analyst Ben Yeh. Memory module makers and OEMs are now at the end of their preparation for the year-end holiday season in North America and Europe, so they are reluctant to extend their inventories now. In addition, the US-China trade dispute simmers, leading to weaker demand. Particularly, price competition is intensifying in the markets for Enterprise SSDs and NAND Flash wafers. NAND Flash suppliers are concentrating on Enterprise SSD market to retain gross margins and on wafer market for greater digestion of inventories.SamsungSamsung’s NAND Flash revenue for 3Q18 rose by 2.1% QoQ to US$6.05 billion. Although demand was lower than anticipated for the busy season, Samsung maintained a QoQ growth of more than 20% in bit shipments because it has remained the dominant supplier of NAND Flash for flagship smartphones and recorded increasing shipments of its SSDs for PCs and servers. Nevertheless, falling prices across the market also resulted in a near 15% QoQ decline in Samsung’s ASP.Samsung’s consumer-grade SSDs (for the channel market) are presently using 3D NAND Flash made with the fifth-generation manufacturing process. The process will be progressively applied to the production of Client SSDs for PC-OEMs and UFS mobile solutions. Because the oversupply problem has grown to become more significant since the start of 2018, Samsung will slow down the pace of the process migration during 2019. This also means that the mainstream architecture in the NAND Flash market during 2019 will still be 64/72-layer 3D NAND.SK HynixSK Hynix’s NAND Flash revenue for 3Q18 advanced by 6.0% QoQ to US$1.83 billion. SK Hynix gained from the seasonal growth in smartphone shipments and the steady growth of its SSD sales. As a result, its bit shipments for the quarter also grew by 19% QoQ. Still, SK Hynix posted a 10% QoQ decline in its ASP because the demand growth was smaller than anticipated and not enough to offset the effect of oversupply.SK Hynix continues to concentrate on product sales in the mobile storage market. Its shipments of mobile solutions that are 128GB or higher have expanded noticeably following the releases of smartphones with higher-end specifications (e.g. the new iPhone devices and Chinese branded smartphones featuring an all-screen front). The success in the mobile storage market has also sustained the growth of the supplier’s bit shipments. In the SSD market, SK Hynix has been focusing on the sales of products based on 72-layer 3D NAND Flash. Consequently, SSDs accounted for more than 20% of SK Hynix’s total bit shipments in 3Q18.ToshibaThe demand growth resulting from the traditional busy season and the release of the new iPhone devices enabled Toshiba’s bit shipments to increase by more than 20% QoQ in 3Q18. However, falling prices in the end market caused Toshiba’s ASP to drop by almost 15% QoQ in the same period. Taken together, Toshiba posted a small increase of 1.9% QoQ in its quarterly revenue, totaling US$3.2 billion.The recent survey of Toshiba’s capacity and technology plans shows that the share of 64-layer 3D NAND production in the supplier’s total output has already surpassed 70%, and more than 50% of the supplier’s total production capacity is devoted to 3D NAND Flash. Additional production capacity for Toshiba during 2019 will come from the expansion of its Fab 6. Considering the market oversupply and the maturity of the supplier’s technology, Fab 6 will primarily manufacture products based on 64-layer 3D NAND.Western DigitalWestern Digital increased its bit shipments by 28% QoQ in 3Q18. This impressive shipment growth was attributed to the supplier’s advantages in the retail and channel market as well as the strong sales of its economically priced SSDs. In the same quarter, Western Digital also began to ship its high-density UFS products. On the other hand, the supplier’s ASP fell by 16% QoQ because of the general price slump for NAND Flash products. Western Digital’s 3Q18 revenue came to US$2.534 billion, amounting to an increase of 7.0% QoQ.In response to the oversupply problem during 2018, Western Digital will be limiting its CAPEX for 2019 and will scale back its future capacity expansion efforts. Hence, Western Digital is expected to slow down slightly with respect to the capacity expansion and the development of 96-layer 3D NAND Flash in 1H19.MicronMicron’s bit shipments in 3Q18 surged by more than 25% QoQ owing to the busy season in the smartphone market and the increase in the sales of its SSDs. Nevertheless, Micron still exerts great influence over the channel market. And because of the steep price drops in the channel market, Micron’s ASP fell by nearly 15% QoQ in 3Q18. All things considered, the supplier’s revenue for the same quarter rose by 14.7% QoQ to US$2.23 billion.To improve its cost structure, Micron has been decreasing the shipment share of products for the channel market. The company’s primary aim in the SSD market is to release products featuring both the NVMe interface and QLC NAND Flash in order to meet the demand for high-density storage. In the mobile storage market, Micron is continuing its collaboration with Chinese suppliers and searching for more opportunities in that country. Micron also began making product shipments in China during 3Q18.IntelIn 3Q18, Intel’s bit shipments kept growing at a QoQ rate of more than 10% due to its long-term dominance in the Enterprise SSD market. Despite prices spiraling downward in the NAND Flash market, Intel was able to keep the decline of its ASP just slightly larger than 9% QoQ. Its revenue performance remained relatively constant from the previous quarter, totaling US$1.08 billion. On the other hand, Intel reached its peak profit for this year in the third quarter thanks to the cost reduction associated with the increased use of 64-layer 3D NAND Flash in its SSDs (over 50% of its total SSD shipments in 3Q18).The additional production capacity made available by the second-phase expansion of Intel’s Dalian fab came online in 3Q18, and will achieve full capacity in 1H19. In addition, Intel and Micron have terminated their cooperation in the field of non-volatile memory. Although Micron will be acquiring the remaining interest in IM Flash Technologies, Intel can still use the Lehi plant for the production of 3D XPoint until the end of 2020. After that, however, Intel is on its own in the development of the third-generation of 3D XPoint products, so Intel will likely set up in-house production for this type of memory in the future.
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Release time：2018-11-20 00:00 reading：1211 Continue reading>>
October Contract Prices for <span style='color:red'>NAND Flash</span> Chips/Wafers Witnessed Continued Price Drop due to Weak Demand Outlook for End Markets
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October Contract Prices for NAND Flash Chips/Wafers Witnessed Continued Price Drop due to Weak Demand Outlook for End Markets

The NAND Flash market has remained in oversupply for the whole year of 2018, according to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, with sufficient inventories for notebook/smartphone OEMs. The China-US trade war and the shortage of Intel CPU have made situations worse on the supply side. In October, the contract prices of SSD, and eMMC/UFS witnessed continued fall, while the price drop of NAND Flash chips and wafers appeared to be larger.The market of SLC NAND Flash chips is also affected as the China-US trade war simmers. “The market originally expected ZTE’s resumption of US business to boost demands from China’s netcom devices biddings in Q3, but the results turned out to be lower than expected”, says DRAMeXchange analyst Ben Yeh, “and the sufficient inventories of netcom ODMs would influence the stock-up demand in the coming quarters”. As the result, the market has seen an oversupply for SLC NAND Flash in Q4, driving down Q4 contract prices by 10-15%.Contract prices of the TLC NAND Flash wafers dropped by 13-17% in October, the highest monthly declineAs for NAND Flash Wafer, the prices normally experience noticeable falls at quarter end when companies announce their financial results. However, as the companies expect their annual inventory checking, the stock-up demand is expected to grow weak for the period after this November. Due to the relatively negative demand outlook for NAND Flash applications in 1H19, which prompted some suppliers to resort to price cuts, the contract prices of the TLC NAND Flash wafers dropped by 13-17% monthly in October, the largest price fall for a single month since November 2017. Despite the coming year-end holiday sales, the impact of current price falls on the restocking demands of the module firms will not be significant in the short term. Therefore, DRAMeXchange expects a high possibility of further price declines in November and December.Amid the recent overall price declines in the NAND Flash market, the drop in 3D TLC prices is sharper than the drop in 2D MLC prices, so more clients are switching to solutions based on the former architecture. With the demand shift, the price decline in 2D MLC prices has also extended to 4-10%.
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Release time：2018-11-07 00:00 reading：1123 Continue reading>>
DRAM and <span style='color:red'>NAND Flash</span> Products to See Price Decline in 4Q18 and 2019 due to Gap Between Supply and Demand
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DRAM and NAND Flash Products to See Price Decline in 4Q18 and 2019 due to Gap Between Supply and Demand

According to DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, DRAM products have begun to see a weak price trend, showing only a 1~2% QoQ hike in contract prices for 3Q18 due to the continued oversupply, despite the coming of holiday sales season. DRAMeXchange expects the quotations of DRAM products to decline by 5% or more QoQ in 4Q18, terminating the super cycle of price growth for nine consecutive quarters. NAND Flash experienced a price drop of around 10% in 3Q18 and expects a steeper drop of 10~15% in the fourth quarter, considering the impacts of trade war. Contract prices of 3D TLC NAND Flash chips in the channel market may even drop by more than 15% in 4Q18.Average DRAM price to drop by 15~20% YoY in 2019 due to the weak price trend of server DRAMDRAMeXchange points out that the main reasons behind the falling demand for DRAM are at various levels. First, the smartphone market this year may not see remarkable shipments, since the replacement demand for smartphones has been sluggish due to the lack of differentiation among products in terms of hardware specifications. Second, the server shipments are uncertain. Third, the notebook and PC shipments may be impacted by the shortage of Intel CPUs.Considering the supply situation in 2H18, DRAM manufacturers all expect a high possibility of oversupply in 2019. Therefore, they have tried to postpone or slowdown the capital expenditure and capacity expansion. The bit output has been increasing in Q3 and Q4 this year thanks to the increased share of products on the 1X/1Y nm processes and raised yield rate of the technology. Particularly, server DRAM products show the highest increase in output, of which the 1Gb solutions are the most profitable among other applications. Therefore, the server DRAM segment would highly likely see a weak price trend in the coming quarters, lowering the ASP of DRAM as a whole.For 2019, DRAMeXchange expects the annual bit output to increase by nearly 22%, with the 1X/1Y processes going mature and the wafer starts increasing, although manufacturers have become more conservative in capacity expansion. However, the trend of DRAM prices will depend on the growth momentum in the demand side, especially server shipments and average content per box. Currently, DRAMeXchange expects the DRAM prices to drop by around 15~20% in 2019, but the price decline may be steeper if the demand for servers and smartphones weakens.NAND Flash to see 25~30% price decline in 2019 due to increased 3D NAND production capacityNAND Flash market is also influenced by the sluggish demand for consumer electronics, while demand for the more profitable Enterprise SSD from servers and data centers remains stable. However, the competition among Enterprise SSD suppliers will become increasingly fierce; hence the prices of Enterprise SSD are very likely to continue decreasing in 2019. On the supply side, NAND Flash suppliers have raised their output forecasts as they have expanded their production capacity and improved the yield rates of their 64/72-layer 3D NAND production.DRAMeXchange now anticipates continuing price decline during the traditional slow season of 1H19. Because of the seasonal headwinds, shipment forecasts for smartphones, notebooks and tablets are fairly conservative for the first half of next year, together with the following-up impacts of China-US trade war. The gap between supply and demand may be moderated if the NAND Flash manufacturers postpone their capacity expansion and transition to 96-layer 3D NAND devices. By 4Q19, the overall production capacity of NAND Flash is expected to grow by 5% YoY, of which the capacity of 3D NAND production would increase significantly by 20% YoY. Hence, for the NAND Flash manufacturers’ capital expenditure, DRAMeXchange now expects further downward revision for their spending plans for 2019.
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Release time：2018-10-10 00:00 reading：978 Continue reading>>
Global <span style='color:red'>NAND Flash</span> Revenue Rose by 3.5% QoQ in 2Q18
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Global NAND Flash Revenue Rose by 3.5% QoQ in 2Q18

DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports that the global NAND Flash market has stayed in oversupply since the traditional slow season in 1Q18, resulting in an average drop of 15~20% in NAND Flash contract prices in 2Q18. On the other hand, NAND Flash bit shipments bounced back in 2Q18 as Chinese smartphone brands stocked up on high-density products.Looking ahead to 3Q18, there are noticeable signs that the demand growth will be limited despite the contributions from the traditional busy season. Shipments of mainstream consumer electronics products such as smartphones and notebooks during 3Q18 are not expected to increase significantly. Also, memory module makers will be carrying high levels of inventory. Therefore, DRAMeXchange analyst Ben Yeh notes that the average selling prices of NAND Flash products are expected to drop further by nearly 10%.Yeh notes that the ASP drops are not totally negative news for the industry. While the persistent oversupply during 2Q18 inevitably led to a further decline in prices, mobile device manufacturers took the opportunity to raise the storage specifications of their devices. As the result, products of 128GB or higher capacity have reached a penetration rate of over 10%. In the second half of this year, Chinese smartphone makers such as OPPO, Vivo and Xiaomi are expected to adopt uMCP actively, bringing the average content per box of mid-to-high-end smartphone models up to 256GB or even 512GB in 1H19.In the SSD market, the price reduction of NAND Flash would also improve the shipments of high-capacity (8TB, 16TB) applications for servers. The notebook market would see greater adoption of SSDs in computer systems, and the shares of those with 256/512GB SSDs would be expanding, up from current 128/256GB.SamsungThe increase in the density per device among Chinese branded smartphones and demand rebound in the server and data center market caused Samsung’s NAND Flash bit shipments to grow by 15% QoQ in 2Q18. However, Samsung’s NAND Flash ASP also suffered a drop of more than 10% QoQ on account of the general oversupply situation and the ongoing price decline for various products. The supplier’s 2Q18 NAND Flash revenue came to US$5.93 billion, showing a QoQ increase of 1.8%.SK HynixThe growth of SK Hynix’s bit shipments rebounded to 19% QoQ in 2Q18 due to returning demand from Chinese smartphone brands and strong SSD sales. Still, the general oversupply in the market caused the supplier’s ASP to drop by 9% QoQ. On the whole, SK Hynix’s 2Q18 NAND Flash revenue rose by 11.8% QoQ to US$1.73 billion. Furthermore, the demand related to the upcoming iPhone devices has started to contribute to SK Hynix’s bit shipments since the end of 2Q18. Also, SK Hynix’s 72-layer 3D NAND products are also gaining traction in the SSD market and are forecast to account for more than 50% of the supplier’s Enterprise SSD shipments by the end of this year.ToshibaThe demand recovery in the smartphone market and SSD sales also helped Toshiba in 2Q18. Although the supplier adjusted product shipments in response to the high inventories carried by memory module makers, its bit shipments for 2Q18 still grew by more than 10% QoQ. Toshiba’s ASP, however, registered a QoQ decline that slightly exceeded 5% due to falling contract prices for wafers, SSDs, and eMMC/UFS products. Given these developments, Toshiba’s 2Q18 NAND Flash revenue advanced by 3.3% QoQ in 2Q18 to US$3.14 billion.Western DigitalWestern Digital’s NAND Flash bit shipments climbed up by about 5% QoQ in 2Q18 because of sales gains in the SSD and retail markets. However, declining prices in the channel and SSD markets also resulted in a QoQ drop of 4% in ASP. Western Digital’s NAND Flash revenue totaled US$2.37 billion, up by 0.3% QoQ.At its latest conference call, Western Digital especially noted that it has been discussing with Toshiba about the future CAPEX plans in light of the recent market developments. Hence, there is a possibility that the Toshiba-Western Digital alliance will slow down the pace of capacity building to prevent the worsening of the oversupply situation. How this alliance proceeds with capacity expansion may influence other suppliers’ decisions in this area as well.MicronMicron’s sales of high-density products for the mobile application nearly doubled in 2Q18 thanks to smartphone brands upgrading their devices. This result also led to changes in Micron’s strategy – the company will focus more on increasing the shipment share of mobile memory solutions while scaling back the shipment shares of chips and wafers that go to the channel market. Micron posted stellar sales result in the SSD market as well. In addition to raising the sales of Enterprise SSDs, the supplier will be promoting QLC 3D-NAND SSDs to further boost its high-density product shipments. Micron’s 2Q18 NAND Flash revenue rose by 7.6% QoQ to US$1.94 billion.IntelIn 2Q18, Intel still maintained a QoQ growth of more than 15% in its NAND Flash bit shipments on account of the steady growth of its server SSD sales. However, a greater part of the 2Q18 server SSD shipments is made up of low-price products due to the imbalance in Intel’s product mix. This actually led to a QoQ drop surpassing 6% in the supplier’s NAND Flash ASP. Intel nevertheless kept its NAND Flash revenue above the US$1 billion mark in 2Q18, posting an increase of 6.8% QoQ to US$1.08 billion.Intel also continues to work on its 3D XPoint and will likely be its leading advocate after the split with Micron. However, getting more customers to adopt this technology will be much more difficult if there is no other partner willing to invest in it.
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Release time：2018-08-17 00:00 reading：1322 Continue reading>>
Contract Prices in <span style='color:red'>NAND Flash</span> Market Will Keep Falling in 2H18 Due to Oversupply and Weak Seasonal Demand
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Contract Prices in NAND Flash Market Will Keep Falling in 2H18 Due to Oversupply and Weak Seasonal Demand

The latest analysis on the NAND Flash market by DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, forecasts that the ASP of NAND Flash will drop by around 10% QoQ respectively in 3Q18 and 4Q18. Although 3Q18 heralds the traditional peak season for the sales of consumer electronics, the growth of the end market demand has been weaker than anticipated. At the same time, the supply of 3D-NAND Flash continues to expand.DRAMeXchange points out that the main reason behind the falling prices is oversupply at various levels. First, the annual shipments for smartphones this year are expected to be just on par with last year’s. The replacement demand for smartphones has been sluggish due to the lack of differentiation among products in terms of hardware specifications. Second, notebook shipments were very strong in 1H18, so the seasonal shipment growth for notebooks in 2H18 will be lackluster compared with the growth in the year’s first half as the base period. Third, the competition is very intense in the server SSD market. Although demand for server systems is growing steadily, there is an oversupply of server SSDs because too many suppliers are engaging in this profitable segment. Finally, NAND Flash suppliers have raised their output forecasts as they have expanded their production capacity and improved the yield rates of their 64/72-layer 3D-NAND production. Given the above factors that have led to a persistent oversupply, contract prices of various NAND Flash products will remain weak through 2H18.Growth in bit demand for eMMC/UFS and SSD is expected as the price drop can raise memory density in end productsThe effects of the price decline are not all negative because lower NAND Flash prices can actually encourage device makers to raise the density (storage) specifications of their products. For instance, smartphone makers have expanded the storage of their flagship devices to 256/512GB. This in turn has led to the upgrade for models within the mid to high-range segment, from 32/64GB to 64/128GB. The increase in the NAND Flash density of smartphones will contribute significantly to the total NAND Flash bit consumption, which is estimated to grow by at least 40% YoY for 2018.The drop in SSD prices is also going to push the SSD adoption rate in the notebook market to exceed 50% for the first time before the end of 2018. Furthermore, the NAND Flash density of mainstream client-grade SSDs for PC-OEMs will increase to 256GB by the end of 2018. Looking ahead, the mainstream density specification of client-grade SSDs could advance to 512GB over the next two to three years. Likewise, NAND Flash and SSD suppliers are actively developing higher-density storage solutions for the server markets. The density growth of server SSDs is projected to become larger in 2019 with the market entry of the QLC 3D-NAND architecture.NAND Flash prices to keep falling in 1H19 as oversupply worsensSince the market outlook for the 2H18 has become more certain, DRAMeXchange now anticipates continuing price decline during the traditional slow season of 1H19. Because of the seasonal headwinds, shipment forecasts for smartphones, notebooks and tablets are fairly conservative for the first half of next year. On the supply side, Toshiba’s newly constructed Fab 6 in the Japanese city of Yokkaichi is scheduled to enter operation in 2019. Meanwhile, most suppliers are working to make the transition from the 64/72-layer architecture to the 96-layer. This ongoing technology migration is expected to increase the overall output and keep the market in oversupply.
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Release time：2018-08-01 00:00 reading：1087 Continue reading>>
Industry Overshooting Capital Spending Needs for <span style='color:red'>NAND Flash</span> Memory
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Industry Overshooting Capital Spending Needs for NAND Flash Memory

Figure 1 compares the estimated required capex needed to increase NAND flash bit volume shipments 40% per year, sourced from a chart from Micron’s 2018 Analyst and Investor Event in May of this year, versus the annual capex targeting the NAND flash market segment using IC Insights’ data.  As shown, Micron believes that the industry capex needed to increase NAND flash bit volume production by 40% more than doubled from $9 billion in 2015 to $22 billion only two years later in 2017!  This tremendous surge in required capital is driven by the move to 3D NAND from planar NAND since 3D NAND requires much more fab equipment and additional cleanroom space to process the additional layers of the device as compared to planar NAND.Most of the five major NAND flash suppliers have stated that they believe that NAND bit volume demand growth will average about 40% per year over the next few years.  Figure 1 shows that the capex needed to support a 40% increase in NAND bit volume shipments was exceeded by 27% last year and is forecast to exceed the amount needed by another 41% this year (NAND bit volume shipments increased 41% in 2017 but 1H18/1H17 bit volume shipments were up only 30%).  As a result, it is no surprise that NAND flash prices have already softened in early 2018. Moreover, the pace of the softening is expected to pick up in the second half of this year and continue into 2019.Historical precedent in the memory market shows that too much spending usually leads to overcapacity and subsequent pricing weakness.  With Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Intel, Toshiba/Western Digital/SanDisk, and XMC/Yangtze River Storage Technology all planning to significantly ramp up 3D NAND flash capacity over the next couple of years (with additional new Chinese producers possibly entering the market), IC Insights believes that the risk for significantly overshooting 3D NAND flash market demand is very high and growing. 
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Release time：2018-07-12 00:00 reading：1113 Continue reading>>
Price Decline Will Continue in <span style='color:red'>NAND Flash</span> Market in 2H18 due to Weak Growth Momentum
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Price Decline Will Continue in NAND Flash Market in 2H18 due to Weak Growth Momentum

The growth momentum for 2H18 NAND Flash market is expected to be weak, according to the latest report of DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce. Coupled with continuous improvements in yield rate and output of 64/72-layer 3D NAND Flash, DRAMeXchange expects the market to approach a balance between supply and demand, the contract prices of NAND Flash products are expected to decline further.The contract prices of NAND Flash products have been decreasing for two consecutive quarters in 1H18 due to the traditional off-season and capacity expansion of 64/72-layer 3D NAND Flash. During this period, suppliers provided competitive prices for high-density products to boost the memory content per box, aiming to further improve the demand in peak season. Meanwhile, suppliers have postponed further plans of capacity expansion, hoping to moderate the price decline.On the demand front, growth momentum for 2H18 NAND Flash market is expected to be weak although Q3 is the traditional peak season, with demand from smartphones, notebooks and tablets growing by 0-1%, 0-1%, and 9-10% QoQ respectively. Suppliers may further lower the quotes to boost the demand, which will result in steeper-than-expected price decline.Prices decline is expected to continue in 4Q18, yet sales of new iPhones may influence the market situationGoing forward to the fourth quarter, suppliers may not release much new capacity, but the yield rate of 64/72-layer products is expected to grow mature, exceeding 80%. Moreover, suppliers may also add new capacity or transfer some of the current capacity to 96-layer production, which would further boost the bit output growth.In terms of the demand, the momentum remains weak due to slow growth of notebook market, lack of specification upgrade in the smartphone market, and less replacement demand. The demand growth fails to offset the new supply, probably leading to the steeper drop in prices in Q4 compared with Q3. However, the market situation will depend on the sales of new iPhones, which may moderate the price decline.Osaka earthquake had limited influence on Toshiba and its NAND Flash supplyA 6.1-magnitude earthquake hit Osaka on June 18, 2018. Yokkaichi, where Toshiba’s NAND Flash fab locates, also had 4-magnitude tremor. DRAMeXchange learns that Toshiba underwent an inspection immediately after the earthquake, and finished checking the wafers on June 19. Only limited number of wafers were influenced and can be fabricated normally after rework, bringing almost no influence to the market. The fab has returned to full operation soon after that.
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Release time：2018-06-28 00:00 reading：1085 Continue reading>>

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